Fruit IPM Fruit IPM
This is the Maryblyt forcast after the first
infection event of the 2000 fireblight season.
There is now a similar forecast tool on the Enviroweather website.
MaryBlyt forecast for Fireblight in Van Buren County.
Once the EIP (Epiphytic Infection Potential) rises over 100, infection is likely during bloom with rain or heavy dew. Rain Monday resulted in a fireblight infection. I have included the output from my copy of MaryBlyt which has EIP values above 100 from Friday on and infection on Monday with the rain. If you still have bloom in the orchard we can still get a fireblight infection with rain because our temperatures are still high enough for good bacterial growth. As long as we have average temperatures above 60F and bloom present fireblight infections are likely with rain storms
How to read the output.
I enter everything in the left hand window.
The program tells me the average (AVE) temperature,
The amount of bacteria in the orchard (EIP),
Which risk factors are present in the BHWTR column, with a + sign in the column;
B is Bloom,
H is high population of bacteria EIP over 100,
W is water or rain,
T is temperature (must be above 60F).
If all four factors are present, ++++ then I get an Infection (I)
If only three factors are present. I get H, a high risk of infection, but
I will not get an infection until all four factors are present.
The last 4 columns track symptoms and when the number reaches 100 then symptoms will be
seen.
BBS is blossom blight symptoms
CBS is canker blight and they are predicted to start oozing on Saturday the 13th
SBS is shoot blight symptoms
TBS is trauma blight symptoms which would follow a hail storm.
