HORTICULTURE
Probability of a Frost/Freeze in the Fall for some Southwest Michigan Sites
Mark Longstroth District Horticultural Agent
Frosts in the fall signal the end of the growing season. Strictly speaking, frosts are when we get ice forming. This can happen and the temperatures are above freezing. Freezing is when the temperature drop below 32F or 0C. Freezing temperatures will kill cold sensitive plants like tomato and corn and kill all the leaves on some perennials such as grapes. Hardier plants like apples suffer little damage, but frozen apples should be allowed to thaw before they are harvested.
I have an old MSU publication from 1965, that lists the probability of a frost for some of the older US Weather Service recording weather stations in our region. I have extracted a partial table showing the probability of freezing temperatures for some SW Michigan sites. This table has three threshold temperatures;
The table below is arranged from North to South. Sites located away from Lake Michigan show the approximate distance to the lake. Sites near Lake Michigan show no distance. In the table 10% means there is a 10% chance of a freeze occurring on or before that date.
| Percent probability of indicated temperature or lower occurring on or before date in Fall. | |||||
| Temperature | 10% | 25% | 50% | 75% | 90% |
| Holland - lakeshore | |||||
| 32 | Sept 24 | Oct 2 | Oct 10 | Oct 18 | Oct 26 |
| 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 11 | Oct 19 | Oct 27 | Nov 4 |
| 28 | Oct 13 | Oct 21 | Oct 29 | Nov 6 | Nov 14 |
| Allegan - 20 miles inland | |||||
| 32 | Sept 23 | Oct 1 | Oct 9 | Oct 17 | Oct 25 |
| 30 | Oct 3 | Oct 11 | Oct 19 | Oct 27 | Nov 4 |
| 28 | Oct 12 | Oct 20 | Oct 28 | Nov 5 | Nov 13 |
| South Haven - lakeshore | |||||
| 32 | Sept 30 | Oct 8 | Oct 16 | Oct 24 | Nov 1 |
| 30 | Oct 6 | Oct 14 | Oct 22 | Oct 30 | Nov 7 |
| 28 | Oct 17 | Oct 25 | Nov 2 | Nov 10 | Nov 18 |
| Paw Paw - 23 miles inland | |||||
| 32 | Sept 20 | Sept 24 | Oct 6 | Oct 14 | Oct 22 |
| 30 | Sept 25 | Oct 3 | Oct 11 | Oct 19 | Oct 27 |
| 28 | Oct 3 | Oct 11 | Oct 19 | Oct 27 | Nov 4 |
| Kalamazoo - 49 miles inland | |||||
| 32 | Sept 23 | Oct 1 | Oct 9 | Oct 17 | Oct 25 |
| 30 | Oct 1 | Oct 9 | Oct 17 | Oct 25 | Nov 2 |
| 28 | Oct 12 | Oct 20 | Oct 28 | Nov 5 | Nov 13 |
| St. Joseph - lakeshore | |||||
| 32 | Oct 13 | Oct 21 | Oct 29 | Nov 6 | Nov 14 |
| 30 | Oct 16 | Oct 23 | Nov 1 | Nov 9 | Nov 17 |
| 28 | Oct 28 | Nov 5 | Nov 13 | Nov 21 | Nov 29 |
| Eau Claire - 12 miles inland | |||||
| 32 | Oct 6 | Oct 14 | Oct 22 | Oct 30 | Nov 7 |
| 30 | Oct 12 | Oct 20 | Oct 28 | Nov 5 | Nov 13 |
| 28 | Oct 18 | Oct 26 | Nov 6 | Nov 14 | Nov 22 |
For more Michigan climate information including frost dates and other growing season information, check out the Michigan State Climatology Site. Click on the Michigan Map Link and choose the region you are interested in.
For more information on Frost and cold injury to plants check out my Frost Freeze Page.