HORTICULTURE

Probability of a Frost/Freeze in the Fall for some Southwest Michigan Sites

Mark Longstroth District Horticultural Agent

Frosts in the fall signal the end of the growing season. Strictly speaking, frosts are when we get ice forming.  This can happen and the temperatures are above freezing.  Freezing is when the temperature drop below 32F or 0C.  Freezing temperatures will kill cold sensitive plants like tomato and corn and kill all the leaves on some perennials such as grapes. Hardier plants like apples suffer little damage, but frozen apples should be allowed to thaw before they are harvested.

I have an old MSU publication from 1965, that lists the probability of a frost for some of the older US Weather Service recording weather stations in our region. I have extracted a partial table showing the probability of freezing temperatures for some SW Michigan sites. This table has three threshold temperatures;

The table below is arranged from North to South. Sites located away from Lake Michigan show the approximate distance to the lake. Sites near Lake Michigan show no distance. In the table 10% means there is a 10% chance of a freeze occurring on or before that date.

Percent probability of indicated temperature or lower occurring on or before date in Fall.
Temperature 10% 25% 50% 75% 90%
Holland - lakeshore
32 Sept 24 Oct 2 Oct 10 Oct 18 Oct 26
30 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 19 Oct 27 Nov 4
28 Oct 13 Oct 21 Oct 29 Nov 6 Nov 14
Allegan - 20 miles inland
32 Sept 23 Oct 1 Oct 9 Oct 17 Oct 25
30 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 19 Oct 27 Nov 4
28 Oct 12 Oct 20 Oct 28 Nov 5 Nov 13
South Haven - lakeshore
32 Sept 30 Oct 8 Oct 16 Oct 24 Nov 1
30 Oct 6 Oct 14 Oct 22 Oct 30 Nov 7
28 Oct 17 Oct 25 Nov 2 Nov 10 Nov 18
Paw Paw - 23 miles inland
32 Sept 20 Sept 24 Oct 6 Oct 14 Oct 22
30 Sept 25 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 19 Oct 27
28 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 19 Oct 27 Nov 4
Kalamazoo - 49 miles inland
32 Sept 23 Oct 1 Oct 9 Oct 17 Oct 25
30 Oct 1 Oct 9 Oct 17 Oct 25 Nov 2
28 Oct 12 Oct 20 Oct 28 Nov 5 Nov 13
St. Joseph - lakeshore
32 Oct 13 Oct 21 Oct 29 Nov 6 Nov 14
30 Oct 16 Oct 23 Nov 1 Nov 9 Nov 17
28 Oct 28 Nov 5 Nov 13 Nov 21 Nov 29
Eau Claire - 12 miles inland
32 Oct 6 Oct 14 Oct 22 Oct 30 Nov 7
30 Oct 12 Oct 20 Oct 28 Nov 5 Nov 13
28 Oct 18 Oct 26 Nov 6 Nov 14 Nov 22

For more Michigan climate information including frost dates and other growing season information, check out the Michigan State Climatology Site. Click on the Michigan Map Link and choose the region you are interested in.

For more information on Frost and cold injury to plants check out my Frost Freeze Page.


Home Search Feedback

posted: September 5, 2003
updated: October 29, 2007