Michigan State University Extension
Tourism Educational Materials - 33529764
06/06/02
Estimating Community Visitor Days
List of files and visuals associated with this text.
Source: Western Rural Development Center
Authors:
George Goldman
University of California, Berkeley
Anthony Nakazawa
University of Alaska
David Taylor
University of Wyoming
ID: WREP 146
Source: Adapted from Tourism USA, Guidelines for Tourism
Development, The University of Missouri, Department of
Recreation and Park Administration, University Extension,
revised and expanded 1986, pp 84-89.
Regional Tourism Fact Sheets
WREP 144 The Economic Impact of Visitors to Your Community
http://www.ext.usu.edu/WRDC/resources/tourism/wrep144.html
WREP 145 Measuring Visitor Expenditures And Their Impact on
Local Income
http://www.ext.usu.edu/WRDC/resources/tourism/wrep145.html
WREP 146 Estimating Visitor Demand and Usage
http://www.ext.usu.edu/WRDC/resources/tourism/wrep146.html
WREP 147 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Local Tourism Development
http://www.ext.usu.edu/WRDC/resources/tourism/wrep147.html
Community leaders, or others involved with tourism-related
community development, can use this series of fact sheets
to lead a focused discussion on the economic benefits of
tourism. Who will benefit from tourism? How many tourists
will a new project bring to the community? How much will
new tourists spend in your community? This series of fact
sheets is designed to address these questions, which must
be answered in order to realistically evaluate decisions
related to local tourism development.
In analyzing tourism, we want to know how many visitors
will be coming to visit and how much they will spend, so
that we can evaluate:
- Whether existing facilities can handle the visitors
expected.
- Whether it will be profitable to make preparations for
increased tourists.
It is important to know the cost of a visit to your
community relative to the cost of a visit to another
community. That cost includes expenditures for food,
lodging, travel, and entertainment. Many of these amounts,
however, are outside of a community's control (such as the
cost of travel to your area).
Communities may be able to cooperate to influence the
effects of transportation costs on tourists. The
Durango/Silverton railroad, for example, is a multi-
community effort that enhances regional tourism.
Other expenses are those not usually considered in terms of
dollars and cents. The most important cost of driving may
not be the gasoline or depreciation of the car, but the
hours spent.
The price of a visit must be balanced with the benefits
offered to visitors. Are there natural attractions---
beaches, rivers, canyons, scenic views---or events that are
interesting to a visitor?
However, we must face the reality that factors other than
price influence tourism potential. A primary factor is
personal income of the tourist you intend to target with
your product. Are personal incomes increasing (are the
media mentioning a prospering or expanding economy) or
remaining constant? Is there a recession? What is the state
of the economy---both national and international?
If incomes are rising, people will have more to spend on
tourism. This may mean that more people will visit your
area and that they will pay more for a trip, or stay
longer. It may also mean that tourists decide to go to more
expensive areas in the United States, or to foreign
countries, but keep in mind that international travel may
be affected by factors other than income, such as the
currency exchange rate and political stability. The effect
of any changes in income level are difficult to assess.
However, they should be considered because income level
relates closely to the types of tourists attracted. Of
particular interest is how income levels are changing for
the tourists that are most likely to visit your community.
In evaluating the tourism potential it is important to
consider the number of competing communities that would
affect your town. If you are surrounded by other
communities with strong tourism industries you will need to
focus on the "distinctive" qualities that your town has to
offer. These qualities might be natural (parks, beaches,
climate) or man-made (museums, historical attractions,
special events, sports attractions). Depending on your
competitive environment, you may find advantages in multi-
community collaborative attractions; again, the
Silverton/Durango Railroad is an example.
Complementary tourism resources are also important. Many
cities have cooperatively (and sometimes not so
cooperatively) developed tourism based on the historical
nature of a region, for example, many areas in the western
U.S. emphasize Oregon Trail attractions.
An example of competing communities will illustrate the
importance of this issue. Along the California coast, Santa
Barbara, Pismo Beach, Santa Cruz, and the communities
between them attract visitors on the basis of their warm,
pleasant climates and the interesting historical aspects of
their cities. All have substantial tourism industries, yet
the distance between these cities can easily be covered in
a day's drive. These cities view each other as competitors;
each, therefore, tries to differentiate itself from the
other. Each city is aware of the attractiveness of the
others. This is clearly evident in their promotional
literature and in the new areas of interest that the cities
develop. All are successful in attracting visitors, despite
their proximity.
Estimating Tourist Potential For Existing Attractions
The most appropriate starting point for estimating economic
potential of existing attractions is the level of
visitation for previous years. Using Figure 1(Vis. 1), list
the average annual visits and the peak day visits for each
attractions year (for the last ten years, if available).
Use daily, weekly, or monthly visit figures as appropriate
for your community. If you are not collecting these figures
now, you should start to establish a basis for assessing
your situation and potential.
For each year after the first year listed, calculate the
percentage growth from the previous year using the formula:
Visits for Year - Visits Previous Year divided by Visits
Previous Year X 100% = % Change in Visitors
You can also calculate for peak visits by month or day.
If the previous year's visitation was higher than that for
the current year, the percentage growth will be negative.
Both average and peak number of visits should be
calculated.
After calculating the growth in average and peak
visitation, write down any special events planned for the
year, such as the opening of a new attraction or festival.
Also, write down any outside events that might have
affected visits that year, such as a recession or a world's
fair.
Calculate an average growth rate for the period. You should
attempt to modify the growth rates to remove the effects of
special events or attractions and outside events. Major
peaks or valleys need to be explained to help understand
the long term trends and to know if different rates of
change might be expected in the future.
Using the estimated growth rate, calculate potential visit
figures for each year ahead in your planning horizon. For
each year use the following formula:
Estimated Visits for the Year = Previous Year's Estimated
Visits X % Annual Growth Rate
Start with visits for the current year and calculate year
by year into the future. Adjust these levels to consider
any special events or attractions or any outside events you
expect in future years.
Figure 1. Estimates of visitors to Western City, U.S.A.
(Vis. 1)
Estimating Tourist Potential For New Tourist Attractions
It is obviously very difficult to come to a firm estimate
of visits for new attractions because there are no current
levels to use as a starting point. Generally, the best
procedure is to seek out other tourist areas with similar
types of attractions, similar target markets, and similar
competition and use current visit levels there to estimate
the levels likely for your community and attraction.
There will not be an existing area that perfectly matches
the proposed one but current visitation figures for other
areas can be adjusted to reflect differences in:
- Size of potential target markets.
- Nearness and convenience of target markets.
- Availability of competitive areas to the target markets.
- "Drawing power" of the area's attractions.
- Costs to the target markets of visiting the areas.
Assessing Support Services To Meet Estimated Visitation
Level
An inventory of support services will provide essential
information about anticipated needs, and may be useful in
advertising and marketing. For example, do the motels have
facilities that appeal to families (do they have swimming
pools and playgrounds), or to convention goers (do they
have convention facilities and nighttime entertainment)?
Does the restaurant inventory include those capable of
catering gourmet meals or are they predominantly fast food
establishments? Do the food services include a variety?
The general process of evaluating community needs and the
costs to satisfy them involves several steps. The following
pattern may be useful.
- Determine the present level of facilities and associated
capacity.
- Identify the kinds of tourism and visitors contemplated.
En route visitors will require fewer services than
destination (overnight or longer) travelers.
- Estimate the quantity of tourists (and duration of
season). This may be a projection of your past experience
adjusted for expected economic conditions, or an estimate
based on the experience of similar attractions elsewhere.
- Estimate the increase in facilities and services needed
for the estimated quantity of visitors at the expected
level of service. In most cases, simple surveys using
guidelines provided here are sufficient.
- Consider methods of financing these additions and develop
a budget and schedule for these provisions.
Attached is a sample form, Figure 2(Vis. 2) for determining
facilities necessary to meet anticipated demand.
The breadth and depth of inventories depend, among other
things, upon the size of the community and the scope of the
development plan. Surveys may be expensive or inexpensive
depending on the scope, the size of the area to be
surveyed, and the amount of cooperation from the support
services.
Remember that inventories are not one-time affairs.
Continual inventories (annual, seasonal, monthly--whatever
you consider most appropriate for your needs) are essential
measures of the success or failure of tourism. Special
needs of visitors should be considered in assessing need
for additional attractions and facilities. These needs
include disability and accessibility requirements, language
barriers, and cultural differences.
Figure 2. Sample survey to determine necessary facilities
to meet visitor needs. (Vis. 2)
Western Regional Extension Publication
WREP 146
http://www.ext.usu.edu/WRDC/resources/tourism/wrep146.html
January 1995
Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work acts of
May 8 and June 30, 1914, in cooperation with the U.S.
Department of Agriculture, Lyla Houglum, acting director,
Oregon State University Extension Service.
Other western State Extension directors include: Hollis
Hall, University of Alaska; Salei Afele-Faamuli, American
Samoa Community College; James A. Christenson, University
of Arizona; Kenneth R. Farrell, University of California;
Milan A. Rewerts, Colorado State University; Chin Tian Lee,
University of Guam; Noel P. Kefford, University of Hawaii;
Leroy D. Luft, University of Idaho; Anita R. Suta, College
of Micronesia; Andrea L. Pagenkopf, Montana State
University; Bernard M. Jones, University of Nevada/Reno;
Jerry Schickedanz, New Mexico State University; Antonio
Santos, Northern Marianas College; Robert Gilliland, Utah
State University; Harry B. Burcalow. Washington State
University; Jim DeBree, University of Wyoming.
Extension invites participation in its programs and offers
them to all people without discrimination.
This material is based upon work supported by the Extension
Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under special
project number 93-ERRD-1-8501.
This is a publication of the Western Rural Development
Center. WRDC publications are sold on a cost-recovery basis
and are available on request from the Center at the address
below.
The Western Rural Development Center offers its programs
and materials equally to all people.
Western Rural Development Center
Oregon State University
Ballard Extension Hall 307
Corvallis, Oregon 97331-3607
(503) 737-3621 FAX (503) 737-1579
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