Michigan State University Extension
Ag Experiment Station Special Reports - SR429301
07/28/98
NATIONAL-INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK TO THE YEAR 2000
Jake Ferris Department of Agricultural Economics Michigan State University
International developments of the past couple of years
underscore the difficulty of forecasting in agriculture even
years ahead. Nevertheless, we can detect certain underlying
not likely to be reversed in the coming decade. As has been
observed, "the past is prologue."
Moreover, decisions are being made regularly which impl
presumptions about long-range prospects--decisions related t
investments, government policies, research priorities, etc.
reason to attempt making long-range projections is to identi
problem areas so that counter measures can be taken to eithe
to the predicted events or to alter the projected course.
To provide a perspective on the outlook for U.S. agricu
the year 2000, a careful review of the past is imperative.
this, an econometric model of U.S. agriculture was estimated
annual data for the period 1960-91. This model, called "AGM
attempts to measure the major economic forces affecting supp
demands for the more important agricultural enterprises. Wh
past relationships are key to the future, efforts are also m
incorporate likely structural changes in the socioeconomic p
environment.
Regardless, underlying projections from models such as
some basic assumptions about conditions which either cannot
forecast, such as the weather, or those crucial influences w
difficult to forecast such as international conflicts and wo
economic growth. An advantage of an econometric model such
is that alternative assumptions can be quickly incorporated
the sensitivity of different scenarios.
In the baseline scenario, the following assumptions wer
for the remainder of the decade of the 1990's:
1. Normal weather.
2. No major international conflict of a world-w
scale.
3. Relatively steady economic growth in the U.S
abroad in the range of 1-1.2 percent per year in real per ca
incomes.
4. The rate of general inflation will average 4
percent.
5. Crude oil prices will increase from about $2
barrel in 1991 to $30-35 per barrel by the end of the decade
6. Real interest rates (nominal less the rate o
inflation) will converge to around 6 percent.
7. The federal farm program will remain similar
Food, Agriculture, Conservation and Trade Act of 1990 with i
emphasis on the environment. However, about half of the lan
Conservation Reserve in 1990 will be withdrawn by the year 2
8. Progress will be made in GATT, but at a slow
than the U.S. timetable for substantial reductions in trade
9. Gains will be made in removing trade barrier
the nations of North America, particularly among Mexico, U.S
Canada.
The projections for income, consumer prices, crude oil
and interest rates are presented in Table 1. These are labe
"baseline." In the narrative for this paper, references wil
to the impact of changing the assumption on world economic g
Domestic Demand
Because total food consumption increases over time dire
related to population growth, demand analysis generally focu
per capita consumption. With U.S. population projected to i
by 8-9 percent between 1990 and 2000, a modest expansion can
projected in the total domestic consumption of most products
rate of expansion may vary noticeably as consumers' incomes,
lifestyles, tastes, preferences, concerns about nutrition an
and other factors shape the allocation of their food dollars
Table 1
Assumptions for Macro Economic Variables
Discussion of the factors to watch in forecasting consu
patterns over the next decade is included in Special Report
"Food Processing and Marketing," by Thomas Pierson and Jack
Implications of these developments are presented in the foll
section which reviews past trends in per capita consumption
foods and indicates possible changes to the year 2000. The
projections are based on the assumed growth in per capita re
incomes, specific farm and food prices as generated by the m
underlying trends in other factors affecting food consumptio
prices. While specific forecasts are made, these projection
tentative and indicate the general thrust of past relationsh
Historical data for this and subsequent sectors of this pape
obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Livestock Products
Figures 1 and 2 and Table 2 include all the per capita
projections for livestock products derived from the model.
meat, poultry meat, and fish data are in terms of edible qua
available (which approximate consumption). Consumption, of
in any given year depends on production, net imports, and st
changes. Stock changes are relatively minor and, except for
net imports are relatively small. Production cycles are ref
per capita consumption of beef and pork. Underlying trends
consumers will continue to substitute poultry meat, fish and
for red meat.
Commercial disappearance of milk per capita on a milkfa
declined for many years before increasing in the late 1980's
2). Disappearance is expected to stabilize near 1990 levels
the early 1990's and move somewhat above later on. In terms
specific dairy products, continued change in the allocation
supplies into products will be evident--more into cheese, lo
milks, yogurt, and low fat frozen products. Butter consumpt
capita is expected to continue to decline gradually with red
more evident in the higher fat fluid milk products.
Egg consumption per capita has been declining for many
is expected to continue dropping. Production per capita, wh
nearly equal to consumption per capita, is projected to decl
22.8 dozen in 1991 to about 21 dozen in the year 2000 (Table
Crops
Wheat consumption per capita in the U.S. held very stea
many years before increasing beginning in the early 1970's (
3). This can be attributed to the increased popularity of f
such as hamburgers and pizza, and also increased sales of dr
products. In terms of farm weight, consumption was about 18
in 1991 and is projected to reach about 210 pounds by 2000.
trends are seen in per capita consumption of rice, corn, and
products.
Figure 1
Per Capita Availability of Red Meat, Poultry Meat, and Fish
1970-91 and Projected to 2000*
Figure 2 Per Capita Consumption of Milk and Eggs 1970-91 and Projected to 2000* Table 2 Projections of the Per Capita Consumption and Availability of Livestock Products
Figure 3
Per Capita Consumption of Wheat
1970-91 and Projected to 2000 Per capita disappearance
at 6-7 pounds over the years (Figure 4). This stability is
to continue during the 1990's.
The shift away from fresh potatoes has apparently been
with a gradual uptrend in prospect (Figure 5). This is attr
featuring of whole baked potatoes in restaurants and possibl
ease of preparation at home and away from home with the grow
of microwave ovens. Per capita utilization of frozen produc
(primarily french fries) will continue to increase with litt
likely in utilization of other processed products.
Per capita use of cane and beet sugar was replaced in a
way by corn sweeteners after the mid 1970's (Figure 6). Inc
consumption of low-calorie sweeteners was also a factor. Ev
total consumption of caloric sweeteners actually increased o
past decade; and the decline in consumption of cane and beet
leveled off in the late 1980's. Per capita consumption of c
sweeteners is expected to remain fairly steady. The balance
sugar and corn sweeteners will depend on relative prices. T
prospect that corn prices may increase relative to cane and
sugar prices suggests some increase in per capita sugar cons
is possible.
In addition to consumer willingness to expand their int
caloric sweeteners, concerns about fat and calories in the d
not been reflected in fat consumption either. While vegetab
has replaced animal fat, total fat intake per capita has inc
over the past two decades (Figure 7). Only in the past few
have there been signs that this trend may be leveling off.
consumption per capita of butter and margarine is trending l
while consumption of shortening and salad and cooking oils h
increased noticeably (Figures 8 and 9).
Figure 4
Per Capita Disappearance of Dry Beans
1970-90 and Projected to 2000
Figure 5 Per Capita Utilization of Fresh and Processed Potatoes 1970-90 and Projected to 2000 Figure 6 Per Capita Disappearance of Refined Cane and Beet Sugar and Total Caloric Sweeteners
Figure 7 Per Capita Consumption of Vegetable and Animal Fats and Oils Figure 8 Per Capita Consumption of Butter and Margarine
Figure 9
Per Capita Consumption of Shortening and Salad and Cooking O
more than offset a moderate decline in fresh citrus fruit (F
10). While Figure 10 indicates this shift in terms of trend
chart is based on indices with 1982-84 = 100), in terms of p
the change is even more pronounced. Consumption of fresh no
fruit increased 20 pounds per capita from 50 pounds in 1970
pounds in 1989 while fresh citrus consumption declined from
in 1970 to 24 pounds in 1989.
Per capita consumption of processed fruits (citrus and
noncitrus) increased into the mid 1970's, leveled off, and r
the increase in the late 1980's (Figure 10). Noteworthy in
recent increase in processed fruits are canned noncitrus jui
canned citrus juice, frozen citrus juice, frozen fruit, and
fruits.
The trend to fresh is also evident in vegetables (Figur
Shown in retail weight equivalent, consumption of fresh vege
has accelerated upward over the period since 1970 while cons
of processed vegetables edged lower. Because of lapses in t
only vegetables consistently reported are tabulated in the l
labeled "Fresh, Selected." Likely, total fresh vegetable co
is exceeding that of processed vegetables. Trends indicated
Figure 11 will probably continue through the decade of the 1
The trends to fresh salads and popularity of pizzas is
in the rise in mushroom consumption (Figure 12). The upward
fresh utilization is intact while processed consumption drop
- associated with a sharp decline in imports.
Export Demand
In the 30 years from 1960 to 1990, world economic growt
averaged about 2 percent per year in terms of real increase
domestic product per capita. Outside of the U.S., the growt
was about 3 percent in the 1960's, 2 percent in the 1970's,
1 percent in the 1980's (Figure 13). Economic expansion was
rapid in the Less Developed Countries (LDC's) in the decade
1970's, based partly on increased lending from the de
Indices of the Per Capita Consumption of Fruit
Fresh Citrus, Fresh Noncitrus, and Processed
Figure 11 Per Capita Disappearance of Fresh and Processed Vegetables F Per Capita Disappearance of Fresh and Processed Mushrooms
Figure 13
Annual Growth Rate in Real Gross Product Per Capita
Outside of the United States nations. Coupled with entry of
international grain markets and worldwide weather problems i
early 1970's, the world demand for U.S. agricultural commodi
very robust during the 1970's.
Inflation became a problem, partly due to sharply highe
prices. Efforts to curtail inflation resulted in unexpected
interest rates in the early 1980's. A worldwide recession r
and real per capita incomes actually declined abroad as well
the U.S. An increase in the value of the dollar further
disadvantaged U.S. farmers in international markets. By the
half of the 1980's, world economies revived and the value of
dollar eased to provide some recovery in U.S. agricultural e
markets. However, the recession of 1990-91 weighed heavily
foreign economies and U.S. exports stagnated.
The key to how much U.S. agriculture will expand in the
is the export outlook. Exports account for about half of ou
utilization, about one-fourth of our feed grain, one-third o
soybeans, and half of our cotton use. In turn, the key to e
demand is economic growth abroad.
The developments of the past couple of years in Eastern
and the former Soviet Union are promising in terms of democr
add to the uncertainties about their faltering economies. U
assumption that the developed world will assist them, econom
rates may be more rapid outside the U.S. than the 1 percent
built into the baseline projections.
Grains and Soybeans
Per capita consumption trends for grain and projections
nations outside the U.S. are portrayed in Figure 14. An ind
standard of living is the amount of grain (coarse grain and
fed to livestock. During the 1960's and 1970's, the per cap
disappearance of grain fed to livestock increased noticeably
the recession in the early 1980's, the upward trend leveled
later declined with the recession of 1990 and 1991. Even w
modest growth
Figure 14
Per Capita Disappearance of Wheat and Coarse Grain Outside U
for Food and For Feed, 1970-91 and Projected to 2000
of 1 percent per year in buying power, some resumption of th
term increase in livestock feeding should follow.
The potential for increases in livestock feeding can be
determined by comparing the rest of the world with the U.S.
in Figure 14, nations abroad are feeding about 100 kilograms
coarse grain and wheat to livestock annually for each person
U.S., about 600 kilograms of grain are being fed each year p
person. Foreign consumers are not expected to emulate the U
their incomes rise, but even a doubling of the amounts fed t
third of that of the U.S. would have a tremendous impact on
grain demand. The world population outside the U.S., now ju
billion (compared to 254 million in the U.S.), is expected t
increase by another billion in the next 10 years. To achiev
of livestock feeding at the rate of one-third of the U.S., t
world coarse grain production would have to be doubled.
Foreign wheat consumption per capita for food leveled o
in the 1980's from the long-term upward trend. Consumption
continue to increase modestly. The potential for per capita
expansion in wheat for food abroad is much less than for coa
(and wheat for feed). This is due to the fact that foreign
consumption of wheat for food is about 84 kilograms. per cap
about the same as in the U.S. In some countries, of course,
consumption is low, potential for expansion is substantial.
Foreign utilization of coarse grain per capita for food
trended lower, leveling off in the late 1980's. Little chan
projected for the balance of the decade.
The export outlook for soybeans is tied to coarse grain
soybean meal is used as a complementary feed with grain. Th
intensity of competition from South American soybeans may le
somewhat, but it will be difficult for the U.S. to capture m
increase in the share of world markets unless major concessi
gained with the E.C.
Other Products
Reduced restrictions on world trade will gradually open
possibilities for exports of other products, particularly th
value added. Progress is being made in shipping beef to Jap
example. Other products will follow. The outlook will depe
resolve of U.S. agriculture, the food industry and agribusin
penetrate international markets. Opportunities are present
time will become greater, especially in the Pacific Rim, the
Bloc, and in the LDC's.
With freer trade will also come increased access by for
producers to U.S. markets, but the net gains should be posit
U.S. agriculture as a whole.
Grain Stocks
In the mid 1980's, world ending stocks of coarse grain
reached a high near to 30 percent of annual utilization (Fig
Much of this carryover was held in the U.S. A combination o
political decisions and the 1988 drought in the U.S. brought
down to a more comfortable level near to 15 percent of annua
utilization. Given the assumptions about demand, technology
farm programs, carryover levels are projected to expand into
1990's, but drop back to the low end of the range of the pas
years.
An implication of this projection is that grain markets
more volatile than normal and would be particularly sensitiv
adverse weather. Also, because crop yields are projected to
linearly as they have in the past, any attenuation of these
would also force crop prices higher than forecast in the bas
scenario.
Figure 15
Ratio of World Ending Stocks of Coarse Grain and Wheat to
Total World Utilization, 1970-90 and Projected to 2000
Major Agricultural Enterprises
The effects of the projections for domestic and export
major agricultural enterprises are highlighted in Tables 3 t
Year by year projections for 1993-2000 can be compared to th
figures for 1991 and preliminary estimates for 1992.
Corn and Other Feed Grain
Corn is the keystone of U.S. agriculture. As the most
agricultural enterprise, profits in corn affect how producer
in other crop enterprises. As the most important ingredient
animal feeds, corn prices also affect livestock production a
profits.
Projections of the more salient variables for corn and
feed grain are presented in Table 3. Production of feed gra
expected to increase about 40 percent between 1991 and 2000,
primarily due to a 50 percent increase in exports. Amounts
domestically to livestock will increase modestly. The slow
due to the shift from red meat to poultry which are more eff
converting feed to meat. Nonfeed domestic utilization will
as ethanol production expands. Stock levels remain at a fai
comfortable level of 12-25 percent of annual utilization.
The government loan rate for corn, at $1.72 per bushel
and 1993, is expected to increase by about $.15 by the end o
decade with the target price held at $2.75. Loan rates are
a moving average of past farm prices. Farm prices on corn a
forecast to remain above the loan rate and even exceed the t
price by the end of the decade.
As a measure of profitability of the corn enterprise, a
margin per acre over variable costs is calculated by multipl
average farm prices of corn by the average yield and subtrac
variable costs. The variable costs relate to U.S. averages
annually by the USDA. Since returns vary depending upon whe
farmers participate in the Feed Grain Program, two sets of f
are computed -- for participants and for nonparticipants. N
Table 3 that the nominal gross margin for participants in 19
$154 per acre compared with $113 for nonparticipants.
Table 3
Projections of Variables Related to Feed Grain and Corn
alternative calculation of real returns was made by dividing
nominal gross margin by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), 1982
percent. This converts gross margins to 1982-84 dollars and
a standard for comparing the ability of an acre of corn to c
nonvariable costs, risk and family living costs for the farm
time. Nominal returns are projected to fluctuate around rec
levels before rising toward the end of the decade. Real gro
margins of participants will tend to move somewhat lower int
decade before rising at the end. By the last half of the de
differences in gross margins of participants and nonparticip
expected to be minimal; actually, the Feed Grain Program wou
discontinued. The projections of gross margins are in line
long-term past trends.
Wheat
Wheat production in 2000 is projected to increase about
percent relative to 1991 and 30 percent relative to 1992 (Ta
While the export projections of 1.86 billion bushels in the
appear high relative to recent years, a 1.4-1.7 billion bush
was achieved in several years of the 1980's. Projected endi
remain ample until the very end of the decade.
The loan rate on wheat increases, based on a formula in
past wheat prices, from $2.04 in 1991 to $2.45 in 1993. Fro
the loan is likely to drop back before increasing to about $
the end of the decade. The farm price of wheat is expected
in the $3.25-4.00 per bushel level for most of the decade wi
possibility of exceeding the $4.00 target by the end of the
Nominal gross margins for participants in the Wheat Pro
projected to hold fairly steady, but would move lower in rea
For nonparticipants, returns would remain below those for
participants, but would tend to increase from the low level
and 1991.
Table 4
Projections of Variables Related to Wheat Soybeans
Soybean production is expected to increase about 18 per
between 1991 and 2000 (Table 5). This appears very modest i
of past trends and is attributed to a very stable export out
Competition from South America will continue to dampen the e
picture.
Stock levels vary substantially, and 20 percent of annu
above would be considered excessive. Odds are that stocks w
remain under that level. With the additional flexibility in
Farm Bill, soybean producers are more able to adjust their s
plantings and can respond to changing profit levels relative
Table 5
Projections of Variables Related to Soybeans
The farm price of soybeans is projected to hold in the
7.00 per bushel range for most of the decade. Nominal gross
over variable costs will tend to increase with real gross ma
holding near the 1990 and 1991 level.
The price of soybean meal, around $175 per ton (Decatur
1991, is projected to increase to over $200 by mid decade an
over $200 through the remainder of the 1990's. Soybean oil
(Decatur, IL), around 19 cents per pound in 1991, are projec
fluctuate in the low 20's for the balance of the decade.
Dairy
Milk cow numbers are projected to continue to decline b
percent between 1992 and 2000 (Table 6). The decline in cow
will be more than offset by increased milk production per co
total milk production increasing about 7 percent between 199
2000.
The projection of milk production per cow is strongly b
past trends amounting to about 250 pounds per year and condi
milk prices and feed prices. Extensive adoption of bST was
incorporated in these projections. Some authorities claim b
boost milk production per cow as much as 20 percent.
In the dairy title of the Food, Agriculture, Conservati
Trade Act of 1990, the Secretary cannot lower milk supports
$10.10 per cwt., but could raise supports by 25 cents if gov
purchases are less than 3.5 billion pounds. Should purchase
7 billion pounds, the Secretary can assess producers to pay
extra acquisitions. AGMOD projects government purchases to
above 3.5 billion pounds and could exceed 7 billion pounds i
years of the mid 1990's.
Because of rising costs of feed and other inputs, polit
pressures may push for higher support levels in the latter p
the decade. However, the projected level of dairy stocks an
international trade considerations would tend to counter tha
pressure. Most likely real gross margins per cwt. of produc
trend lower in this period. Table 6
Projections of Variables Related to Dairy
In these projections, major adjustments in the support
which might be required in a GATT agreement were not assumed
when such a new program is apparent, the modifications will
incorporated in AGMOD. Also, possible benefits from NAFTA w
explicitly modeled.
Note that on dairy and other livestock that the gross m
variable relates to returns over feed costs and not over all
costs. Home-grown feeds are priced at their opportunity cos
their value if sold on the market.
Beef Cattle
One of the most difficult industries to analyze is beef
is because of the changing structure of demand. Beginning i
late 1970's, demand shifted downward and continued to do so
the 1980's. Late in the 1980's and early in the 1990's, a
statistical analysis of demand indicated some leveling off i
decline. In projecting beef demand through the 1990's, the
assumption was made that beef will continue to lose ground t
poultry, meat and fish, but at a slower pace than in the 198
The implication of the projections on demand for beef c
seen in Table 7. The current beef cow cycle will continue u
until 1993, followed by a decline through 1998. After a sma
expansion, beef cow numbers in the year 2000 will be about 5
below their level in 1992. Cattle on feed will decline even
Increased productivity of the beef herd will keep beef produ
fairly stable during the 1990's.
Prices on fed cattle and feeder cattle are projected to
into 1993 and 1994, and then move up in the latter part of t
in response to reduced supplies. Gross margins over the cos
and feeders are expected to remain low in the near-term befo
back to more normal levels by mid decade.
This scenario on beef may appear pessimistic, but it sh
noted that:
1. The projections are heavily influenced by th
negative demand trends of the past 15 years. Developments i
over the next year or two can help determine whether the str
market of the past year is an exception or not.
2. Modest success is assumed in marketing quali
in the Pacific Rim and elsewhere abroad, but the potential i
greater.
3. The comparison on cattle numbers is from nea
cyclical high in 1992 with a near cyclical low in 2000. Thi
to overstate trends.
Table 7 (PLEASE NOTE NO TABLE WAS PRESENTED IN PRINT FORMAT, REFER TO THE ORIGINAL DOCUMENT) Projections of Variables Related to Cattle and Hogs
Pork
Except for cyclical changes, pork production is expecte
remain fairly stable through the 1990's (Table 7). Prices o
and gilts will tend to fluctuate between $40 and $65 for mos
decade. Real gross margins over feed costs will also fluctu
will likely average near the levels of the past.
Broilers
Broiler production is projected to increase about 55 pe
between 1991 and 2000 (Table 8). Wholesale prices are proje
be fairly stable at 1991 levels until mid decade when reduce
supplies of red meat would give support to the broiler marke
gross margins over feed costs are projected to range between
24 cents per pound for most of the 1992-2000 period.
Turkeys
Turkey production is forecast to increase near to 40 pe
between 1991 and 2000 (Table 8). As with broilers, the mark
be strengthened by cyclical lows in red meat supplies for a
after the middle of the decade.
Eggs
Egg production is expected to remain fairly steady thro
1990's (Table 8). Average farm prices are projected to rang
55-90 cents per dozen for most of the decade. Real gross ma
slated to average below 1991, but above 1992 levels.
Farm Financial Outlook
General indicators of the U.S. farm financial situation
projected in Table 9. Gross cash income from the sales of c
expected to increase 50 percent between 1991 and 2000 with l
sales up by a similar percent.
Direct government payments to farmers are slated to dec
This partly reflects higher market prices on feed grain and
comparison with fixed target prices, which reduces deficienc
payments.
Table 8 Projections of Variables Related to Poultry
Table 9 Variables Related to the Farm Financial Situation
Gross cash income from farming is projected to increase
$183 billion in 1991 to $262 billion in 2000, an increase of
45 percent. Cash expenses, at $125 billion in 1991, will mo
with inflation and expanded production to about $180 billion
an increase of 45 percent. Nominal net cash income should p
toward $80 billion by the end of the decade. Real net cash
projected to stabilize around $40-45 billion in 1982-84 doll
The Corn Belt land market, a buoyant one in the 1970's
source of major financial problems later, may be fairly quie
1990's. Based primarily on gross margins on corn and soybea
on interest rates, farmland prices are projected to be fairl
until late in the decade. In real terms, farmland prices wi
decline.
Biofuels
The excise tax exemption for gasoline with 10 percent e
has provided the base for expansion in corn used for ethanol
production. In 1990, over 4 percent of the corn crop was us
this purpose. With the additional incentives from the manda
the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990, total corn used for et
could exceed 10 percent of the crop by the year 2000.
Likely, the industry will need continued subsidies by f
and state governments in the interim. Beyond the year 2000,
ethanol production may become economical due to (1) improved
efficiency in conversion and (2) rising petroleum prices rel
corn. In addition, economic conversion of cellulose to etha
become a reality, which would have implications for crop res
certain non-traditional crops.
The "National Energy Strategy" program initiated by Pre
Bush in 1989, has identified biofuels as a major prospective
substitute for the nation's petroleum supplies in the 21st c
As stated in the initial report on this project, "Significan
production of domestic biofuels will begin around 2010, risi
about 50 percent of alternative fuel use by 2030 (Figure 16)
rapid growth after 2010 will follow the availability of adva
nonpetroleum vehicle technologies.
The impetus for biofuels will be generated by:
1. Desire to reduce dependence on foreign oil
2. Need for cleaner air in targeted cities
3. Concern about the "greenhouse effect" of cu
energy sources
4. Public interest in drawing on renewable res
5. Efforts to promote rural development
6. Strong bi-partisan political support
Figure 16 (PLEASE NOTE GRAPHICS DO NOT TRANSFER TO A DATABAS FORMATE, PLEASE REFER TO THE ORIGINAL DOCUMENT) Displacement of Oil From Alternative Fuels
Source: D.O.E., National Energy Strategy.
Summary
The outlook for U.S. agriculture in the 1990's is impro
the 1980's, but not as optimistic as the 1970's. World econ
growth is key to farm incomes and the expansion of agricultu
trend to less restrictions on international trade and effort
assist developing nations, Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Bl
eventually be a plus for U.S. agriculture. In particular, d
for feed grains, soybeans, and soybean meal will outpace the
of the rest of the world to supply those inputs to their liv
sectors. In addition, the U.S. should step up marketing eff
worldwide, focusing on value-added agricultural exports whic
in growing demand as the buying power of foreign consumers e